Climate change is already happening in the UK. Temperatures have already risen by 1°C on average in Central England since the 1970s and the ten hottest years on record have occurred since 1995. August 2003 saw the highest temperature on record throughout the UK (All time record of 38.3 in Kent).
We need to start adapting to these changes now in order to avoid costly last minute solutions.
What climate can we expect in the future?
The Department for Environment Food and Rural affairs (Defra) has recently published the UK Climate Projections 2009. This extensive piece of research looked at what changes will occur across the whole of the UK over the course of the century (2020, 2050 and 2080).
The research looked at three scenarios:
• With highly reduced carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions
• With medium level of CO2 emissions
• With high level of CO2 emissions
It is important to understand that these projections are probabilities and not exact predictions. However, they provide a good indications of things to expect and so help us plan ahead. The UK national approach on climate change adaptation can be found on the Defra website.
The Future Climate of St Albans
Hertfordshire County Council recently produced an in depth analysis of the future climate for the county based on the UK Climate Projections 2009. As time goes by (from now to 2080), we will experience increasingly warmer weather throughout the year with very hot summers. Rainfall pattern will increasingly vary between very wet winters and drought prone summers.
Here is a snapshot of the key changes projected for 2020:
Increased Winter Rainfall:
By 2020, rainfall (or snow) on the wettest day in winter may increase by 6 %, with the potential to increase by 22 % at the extreme.
Forward planning is thus needed to implement measures to prevent floods such as sustainable urban drainage or manage flood situation better such ensuring residents wellbeing and safety.
Flooding in London Colney -The picture illustrates the difference between costly emergency response: delivering sand bags to residents compared to the forward planning of a waterproof gate. This shows the value of putting in place adaption measures to adapt in time.
In 2007, flooding caused nearly £3 Billion in damage in the UK.
Increased Summer temperature
By 2020, summer mean daily maximum temperatures show an increase from 21 °C to 23 °C, but they could reach 24 °C at the extreme.
While higher temperature bring opportunities in terms of tourism and outdoor activities, excess heat is also fatal, especially for the frail or the elderly. The following figures illustrate the impact during the last big heat waves experienced in the UK:
2003 - August– estimated 2000 death in UK. In France – 15 000 in 3 weeks.
2006 - 16 – 28 July - 680 deaths
2009 - 30 June – 2 July approximately 300 death
Decreased summer rainfall
By 2020, summer rainfall could decrease by 7%.
Aggravating factors:
- East of England is already the driest region
- 500 000 houses to be built by 2021in the East of England region
Forward planning is required to ensure that water efficiency measure are introduce to manage the water resource better. This might include different park maintenance regime (choosing drought resistant species), improving water storage.
What is St Albans Council doing to adapt to these changes
Adapting to climate change is an important process for St Albans District Council to ensure the resilience of its services and estates under future climatic conditions. Failure to adapt could have serious implications on service delivery, costs and reputation. The Council has also formally pledged to take action by signing the Nottingham Declaration on climate change. The Council has an obligation to meet National Performance Indicator NI 188: Planning to Adapt to Climate Change
Progress so far:
So far the Council has undertaken an assessment of all its services and functions (see document below) to see how these would be impacted upon by climate change. Climate change adaptation is a relatively new agenda for local government, many existing plans and programmes do not yet have explicitly considered climate change. Area of focus have been highlighted and the report will constitute the starting point to develop and action plan.
The results of this work to date illustrate that our plans and programmes have the potential to contribute positively to climate change adaptation. We can already see some examples of or autonomous adaptation. For instance, over the next 6 years all the care home residents will be transferred to housing with much better standard ensuring effective insulation and cooling for the residents.